More than 3.5 million new breast cancer cases are expected to be diagnosed each year worldwide by 2050, according to a major new study published in The Lancet Oncology.
The research examines global trends in incidence and mortality across 204 countries and territories, highlighting stark geographic and socioeconomic disparities. Greece records relatively high incidence rates, although mortality has declined by around 20% since 1990.
In 2023 alone, 2.3 million new cases were reported, with 73% occurring in high- and upper-middle-income countries. That same year, 764,000 deaths were recorded, 39% of which occurred in low- and lower-middle-income nations. Breast cancer remains the leading cause of premature death among women worldwide.
The analysis draws on cancer registry data from 1990 to 2023, as well as interviews with relatives and caregivers of women who died from the disease. Researchers also projected trends through 2050 and estimated years of healthy life lost due to illness and premature death.
According to the Global Burden of Disease Study Breast Cancer Collaborators, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, annual global cases are projected to exceed 3.5 million by mid-century, while yearly deaths could rise sharply to 1.4 million.
Higher Incidence in Wealthier Nations
The highest incidence rates in 2023 were observed in high-income countries including Monaco, Andorra, France, Germany and Ireland, with 100 or more cases per 100,000 women. By contrast, the lowest rates were reported in Afghanistan, Somalia and Mozambique.
While incidence rates have remained relatively stable in wealthier nations since 1990, they have surged by an average of 147% in low-income countries. Mortality, meanwhile, has fallen by 30% in high-income countries but nearly doubled in low-income nations, underscoring disparities in early detection and access to quality care.
Age and Regional Differences in Europe
In 2023, women aged 55 and older accounted for three times as many new cases as those aged 20–54. However, incidence among younger women has increased by 29% since 1990, possibly reflecting shifting risk factors before and after menopause.
Dr. Roman Topor-Madry of the Jagiellonian University Medical College noted that although breast cancer was the most common cancer among women in Europe in 2023, trends differ markedly between Western, Central and Eastern Europe. Mortality in Western Europe has declined by more than 30%, compared with reductions of around 10% or less in other parts of the continent.
Prevention Opportunities
Globally, years of healthy life lost due to breast cancer more than doubled from 11.7 million in 1990 to 24 million in 2023. Over a quarter of this burden is linked to six modifiable risk factors: high red meat consumption, smoking, elevated blood sugar, high body mass index, alcohol use and low physical activity.
The authors stress that reducing inequalities will require strong health systems, organized screening programs and universal access to affordable, high-quality treatment. They also caution that limited cancer registry data in lower-income countries remains a key limitation, and note that the study does not include information on stage at diagnosis or molecular subtypes of the disease.